Markets
Markets Today: Yields Peak and Retreat — Stocks End October's First Day Green as Bitcoin Tops $84K (October 1, 2026)
10-year yields hit a 24-year high then fell; stocks eked out green. Bitcoin back over $84K, ETH at best monthly close ever.
Updated October 1, 2026 — stock prices as of the US market close (4 p.m. ET). Crypto trades around the clock, so treat these as a snapshot, not a live quote. Not financial advice.
October opened with a tug-of-war. The 10-year Treasury yield spiked to its highest level since 2002 — nearly 5.34% — and stocks sagged. Then bonds flipped: yields posted their biggest drop in over a month, and equities crawled back to finish the first trading day of Q4 modestly higher. Crypto stayed green all day, with Bitcoin climbing back above $84,000. Here's the rundown.
Crypto snapshot
| Asset | Price | 24h change |
|---|---|---|
| Bitcoin (BTC) | ~$84,300 | up ~1.4% |
| Ethereum (ETH) | ~$2,715 | up ~2.2% |
| Total crypto market cap | ~$2.90 trillion | roughly flat |
Bitcoin traded between about $82,630 and $85,000, briefly breaking above $85,000 after Wednesday's cooler inflation data before pulling back as yields surged. Ethereum outperformed, holding above $2,700 and logging its highest monthly close of 2026 — and the best third-quarter close in its history (CryptoCompass). The Fear & Greed Index read 74 — firmly in Greed territory (₿Proud).
Stock market snapshot
| Index | Close | Change |
|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 | 7,666.45 | up 0.19% |
| Nasdaq Composite | 26,871.60 | up 0.04% |
| Dow Jones Industrial Average | 50,926.56 | up 0.04% |
All three indexes spent most of the day in the red before flipping green in the afternoon, after the 10-year yield retreated from its 24-year high to 5.233% (The Wall Street Journal).
Today's winners and losers
Crypto gainers: Midnight (NIGHT) +28.5% was the strongest large-cap mover, followed by Stacks (STX) +27.9%, Bitway (BTW) +21.0%, Ethena (ENA) +13.6%, and NEAR Protocol +11.6% on heavy ~$1.5B volume. Among smaller caps, Moonriver (MOVR) soared ~85% after its Base migration wrapped up on September 30 (₿Proud; CoinStats). Losers: Sky (SKY) -3.2%, World Liberty Financial (WLFI) -1.8%, ICP -1.5%, POL -1.4%.
Stocks: Accenture jumped about 17% on strong results, while Micron beat earnings and raised its outlook — yet its stock barely moved (TradingNews; CoinCentral). A wrap-up from the NYSE floor noted Boeing, Salesforce, and IBM as the day's big Dow winners, with Nvidia up over 1% — the best of the Magnificent Seven on Thursday.
What's driving the moves
- Yields ran the show. The 10-year hit nearly 5.34%, its highest since 2002, before falling to 5.233% — down 0.059 points, the largest daily drop in over a month. The 30-year fell to 5.6302% and the 2-year to 4.785% (The Wall Street Journal).
- Fed hike odds collapsed. After soft inflation data and Fed Governor Philip Jefferson saying the Fed may need more time before adjusting policy, the odds of an October rate hike fell below 25% — down from 68% earlier in the week, per CME's FedWatch tool (The Wall Street Journal).
- Cool inflation, hot oil. August PCE ran at 3.4% year-on-year (core 3.0%) — lighter than expected (Hindu BusinessLine). Meanwhile Brent crude climbed 4.4% to $102.31 and WTI rose 2.7% to $92.87 as the Pentagon sent a third carrier group to the Middle East amid talk of renewed strikes on Iran (The Wall Street Journal).
- Steady jobs, mixed factories. Jobless claims fell for a fourth straight week, but ISM manufacturing showed slower growth alongside rising prices (CoinCentral).
- Crypto ETF demand held up. US spot Bitcoin ETFs drew about $2.4 billion in the week through September 25, and September netted $2.65 billion overall, per Farside data (Hindu BusinessLine; The Agent Times). But Bitcoin futures open interest sank to its lowest level of the year — leverage is draining out of the rally.
What investors are watching next
- Friday's jobs report — the key government payrolls reading could move Fed expectations again (Devdiscourse).
- What analysts are saying: Ameriprise strategist Anthony Saglimbene said markets have historically looked past higher rates when growth and profits are strong — but warned that if rates stay elevated, investors could react "swiftly" and negatively (Devdiscourse). A clip circulating on social media shows Bank of America's Michael Hartnett arguing corporate earnings are strong enough to absorb the cost of rising rates.
- Crypto seasonality vs. supply: September closed up 6.4% for Bitcoin — its third-best September since 2013 — and past Octobers have closed higher in ten of thirteen years (Coinjuice). That's history, not a forecast. Near-term, a scheduled DoubleZero token unlock on October 2 adds supply pressure (CoinStats).
Bottom line: A panicky morning — the 10-year at a 24-year high — gave way to a calm afternoon once yields retreated. Stocks eked out gains, Bitcoin reclaimed $84,000, and Ethereum closed its best month and quarter ever. Everything funnels into Friday's jobs report: hot data could restart rate-hike talk; soft data could let this fragile rally breathe. This is not financial advice.