Markets

Markets Today: Weak Jobs Report Fuels Rally — Bitcoin Tops $86K, Nasdaq Nearly Sets Record (October 2, 2026)

By ToolPilot Editors · Updated October 2, 2026

Weak September jobs report sent rate-hike odds tumbling; Bitcoin briefly topped $87K and the Nasdaq nearly set a record.

Updated October 2, 2026 — stock prices as of the US market close (4 p.m. ET). Crypto trades around the clock, so treat these as a snapshot, not a live quote. Not financial advice.

The September jobs report landed like a dove with a loud coo: just 29,000 jobs added — far below expectations — and unemployment ticked up to 4.2%. For markets, weak was good. Traders read the soft labor data as the Federal Reserve's excuse to hold rates steady later this month, and both stocks and Bitcoin ripped higher. The Nasdaq closed just below its all-time high, and Bitcoin briefly crossed $87,000.

Crypto snapshot

Bitcoin recovered from sub-$84,000 earlier in the session, briefly surged above $87,000, and was trading around $86,300 late in the day — up roughly 3%. The move gathered steam after the weak payrolls print, which reinforced bets the Fed will leave rates unchanged at its late-October meeting (crypto.news). More than $120 million in bearish Bitcoin positions were liquidated over 24 hours as BTC crossed $85,000, forcing short sellers to cover and adding fuel to the move (crypto.news). US spot Bitcoin ETFs logged $102.7 million in net inflows on October 1, reversing the prior day's outflows (CryptoSlate via Farside). Ether ETFs, by contrast, saw about $55 million in outflows on October 1 even as ETH climbed (CryptoCompass). Citi raised its 12-month Bitcoin target to $113,000 (from $82,000) and its Ether target to $3,028 (from $2,240), projecting roughly $5 billion in crypto ETF inflows over the coming year (CryptoCompass).

Stock market snapshot

The Nasdaq briefly touched record territory intraday and closed with its second-highest finish on record, while every S&P 500 sector except Health Care finished in the green (Dow Jones Newswires; Investopedia). For the week, though, the picture was mixed: the Nasdaq eked out a 0.5% gain — its third straight weekly win — while the S&P 500 slipped 0.3% and the Dow fell 1.3% (Investopedia).

Today's winners and losers

Crypto gainers: ECOMI (OMI) led the top 200 coins with +14.7%, followed by SuperVerse +11.7%, DeXe and Aave, while LayerZero (+9.4%) was named CoinCodex's coin of the day (CoinCodex). Among large caps, Solana led with a 3.8% jump to about $122 (CryptoCompass). Crypto losers: Quant (QNT) was the day's worst large-cap performer at -14.7%, with Qubic -14.2%, Ethena, ZetaChain and NEAR also in the red (CoinCodex).

Stocks: Nvidia hit a new all-time high, and chip names Teradyne, Monolithic Power Systems and Arm Holdings each rose more than 5% (Investor's Business Daily). Nike was the day's notable laggard, tumbling as much as 6.7% intraday before paring losses to close down about 4% at $33.87 after a dismal revenue forecast and planned layoffs (New York Post). Mattel surged about 22% on takeover interest from Authentic Brands Group, and RTX's Raytheon won a $24.4 billion Navy missile contract — one of the largest defense contracts of the year (Everhint market wrap).

What's driving the moves

• A soft jobs report, a happier market. September payrolls rose by just 29,000 versus expectations near 84,000-90,000, the unemployment rate rose to 4.2% from 4.1%, and August's blockbuster gain was revised down from 162,000 to 133,000 (Dow Jones Newswires). Futures markets are now pricing only a 23-24% chance of an October Fed rate hike, down from about 64% a week ago, per CME FedWatch (Investopedia).
• Yields stayed historically high. The 10-year Treasury yield initially fell after the jobs report, then reversed to close around 5.27-5.28% — off Thursday's 24-year high of nearly 5.35%, but still a level last seen before the 2008 financial crisis. The 30-year yield edged up to 5.629% (Dow Jones Newswires).
• AI money is still moving. Broadcom is raising up to $60 billion to finance AI customers' chip purchases — including up to $42 billion for Anthropic — Amazon is reportedly looking to move some $8 billion of Nvidia chips off its balance sheet, and SoftBank completed its $30 billion investment in OpenAI. Anthropic is also targeting a mid-November IPO at a valuation that could reach $2 trillion (Investopedia; Everhint; Coin Edition).
• Oil fell, Europe wobbled. WTI crude slid more than 1% to around $91-92 a barrel — and traded as low as $89 earlier — after reports the EU could release diesel stockpiles, even as tensions between the US and Iran remained high. In Europe, UK 30-year gilt yields topped 6%, the FTSE fell 1.7%, and the gap between French and German 10-year yields widened to its largest in 14 years on French fiscal fears (Investor's Business Daily; CoinDesk).
• Social-media mood: crypto commentators are leaning into "Uptober" — the community's long-running joke-hope that October delivers crypto rallies — with posts tallying up the month's calendar: today's jobs report, October 14 CPI, and the October 27-28 Fed meeting as the key dates for both crypto and stocks.

What investors are watching next

• October 14 — CPI inflation data. With the Fed's late-October meeting hinging on the labor-market-vs-inflation balance, the September CPI print could swing rate expectations the other way if it runs hot.
• October 27-28 — FOMC rate decision. Fed officials have warned more hikes are possible this cycle, though as Fifth Third Wealth Advisors' Chris Osmond put it, the soft payrolls report means "the Fed can credibly argue that labor cost pressures are abating, reducing urgency for additional hikes" (Dow Jones Newswires).
• Q3 earnings season kicks into gear this month, with the big tech names — Microsoft, Alphabet, Meta, Apple, Amazon, Tesla — reporting around the Fed meeting; how AI spending and ad revenue hold up will set the tone for the Nasdaq's record chase (Investor's Business Daily).
• October 29 — Q3 GDP and PCE inflation, plus personal income and spending data, round out the month's macro calendar.

Bottom line: Weak jobs numbers did what strong ones couldn't — they gave the Fed cover to pause and gave risk assets a green light. Bitcoin reclaimed $86,000, the Nasdaq nearly set a record, and October hike odds collapsed to about one in four. But 10-year yields near 5.3% and an inflation print still to come mean this rally is rented, not owned. This is not financial advice.